Epidemic risk assessment of countries regarding COVID-19
Based on the very good epidemiological data of Cyprus and in an effort to reopen the country’s borders, the Epidemiological Surveillance and Control Unit for Infectious Diseases (ES&CUID) of the Ministry of Health has carried out a risk assessment of various countries regarding the COVID-19 disease. The assessment relied on the most basic epidemiological indicators of countries, such as the effective R(t) reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2, the number of new diagnosed outbreaks and the number of deaths per 100.000 inhabitants, the assessed prevalence and impact and the classification by the World Health Organization (WHO), as these indicators are presented in valid data bases. It should be noted that the reliability of these details is dependent on the policy of each country as regards the laboratory tests they carry out and the declaration of the details to international sanitary authorities.
On the basis of this assessment, ES&CUID has proceeded to a risk assessment and classification of countries in the following two categories:
In this category are classified countries with effective (Rt) reproduction number less than 1 or/and small number of new diagnosed outbreaks (<1/100.000 inhabitants per day) or/and low or very low mortality from COVID-19 (<5-10/100.000 inhabitants) or/and classification of sporadic cases or cluster cases according to the WHO or/and minimum satisfactory laboratory testing (>3000 tests/100.000 inhabitants):
In this category are classified countries with effective (Rt) reproduction number higher than 1 or/and number of new diagnosed outbreaks >1/100.000 inhabitants per day or/and increased mortality COVID-19 (>10/100.000 inhabitants) or/and limited laboratory testing (<2000 tests/1000.000 inhabitants) or lack of WHO classification:
It should be noted that the above evaluation, based on the epidemiological assessment of the countries, is extremely dynamic and may be modified at any given moment, as the pandemic is still evolving and the epidemiological data are changing. For this reason, the ES&CUID will be announcing an updated list of countries at regular intervals.
( DC )
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