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10-06-2020 15:31

Epidemiological risk assessment of countries concerning COVID-19, dated 10/06/2020.

On the basis of the epidemiological data of Cyprus and in an effort to reopen the country’s borders, the Infectious Diseases Epidemiological Monitoring and Control Unit (IDEM&CU) of the Ministry of Health have carried out an epidemiological risk assessment of various countries in respect of the COVID-19 disease.  The conduct of the assessment has been based on the most basic epidemiological indicators of countries, such as the real number of R(t) reproduction for SARS-CoV-2, the number of new diagnoses, the number of laboratory tests, the mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants, the estimated prevalence, impact and classification by the World Health Organization (WHO), as these indicators are presented in authoritative data bases. The reliability of these data depends on the policy of each country as regards the laboratory examinations undertaken by it and the declaration of the data to international sanitary authorities.

It must be noted that the following classification of countries, based on the epidemiological risk assessment, is extremely dynamic and may change at any moment, since the pandemic is evolving and the epidemiological data are being modified.  For this reason, new data will be announced and the list of countries will be updated at regular intervals.

Based on the above and on the evaluation undertaken, the IDEM&CU has proceeded to carry out an epidemiological risk assessment and classification of countries in three categories (A, B and C) as follows:

Category A – Low risk countries

Classified in this category are countries with a real reproduction number (Rt) smaller than 1 or/and small number of new diagnoses (<1/100,000 inhabitants per day) or/and small or very small COVID-19 mortality  (<5-10/100,000 inhabitants) or/and classification of sporadic cases or clusters of cases according to WHO or/and at least satisfactory laboratory testing (>3000 tests/100,000 inhabitants):

Austria

Bulgaria

Croatia

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Norway

Slovakia

Slovenia

Switzerland

Category B – Increased risk countries compared to those of Category A

Classified in this category are countries with a real reproduction number (Rt) greater than 1 or/and number of new diagnoses (<1/100,000 inhabitants per day) or/and increased COVID-19 mortality  (<10/100,000 inhabitants) or/and limited laboratory testing (>2000 tests/100,000 inhabitants) or lack of classification according to WHO:

Israel

Poland

Romania

Category C – Countries with increased risk compared to those of Categories A and B

Classified in this category are countries with a real reproduction number (Rt) greater than 1 or/and number of new diagnoses (<1/100,000  inhabitants per day) or/and increased COVID-19 mortality  (<10/100,000 inhabitants) or/and limited laboratory testing (>2000 tests/100,000 inhabitants) or lack of classification according to WHO:

Belgium

Ireland

Italy

France

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Netherlands

United Kingdom

 ( DC )